Tigers 2023 predictions: Can Detroits hitters actually rebound from last season?

Here’s something that becomes clear peering into the crystal ball: The Detroit Tigers can’t get much worse. So many things went wrong in 2022. Injuries, bad luck, and downright poor performance persisted across the board. A franchise with positive momentum quickly stopped atop the hill and began to roll backward.

So is there any reason to be optimistic about 2023, especially when new president of baseball operations Scott Harris has talked about carving out time for young players when he has yet to add hitters to what was the worst offense in baseball last season?

OK, optimism might be stretching it. Tough to predict how many wins the Tigers will finish with, given there’s still so much undecided on the roster. But there are reasons to believe certain players will bounce back and the pitching will be strong.

With that considered, here are 10 Tigers predictions for the new year.

This one is easy. Greene showed a whole lot of promise in his rookie season. He also encountered typical growing pains. Greene finished with a .253 average, five home runs and a 98 wRC+ in 93 games. At the plate, his launch angle was oddly low at 2.8 percent — something that could be an easy fix for a player rated as the best prospect in baseball around the time of his call-up.

Yet even MLB’s best rookies last season went through an acclimation period. Julio Rodríguez was hitting .232 with only one home run through his first 27 games. Adley Rutschman was hitting .215 with five home runs through his first 45 games. Putting Greene in the same class as those two players is borderline unfair, but he’s been an elite prospect since the day he was drafted. A season with 20-plus homers and a .270 average feels plenty realistic for Greene in 2023.

Last season’s Tigers had plenty of candidates for regression. And nearly every one of them did indeed regress, none more so than second baseman Schoop. His wRC+ of 58 was the worst of any qualifying hitter in the league. He had a .202 average and only 11 home runs, resulting in easily the worst offensive season of his career. Only his 2014 rookie season comes close.

And that’s why there’s reason to believe he will improve in 2023 — maybe not to the 2021 version of himself, but this is a hitter with a track record that includes five seasons of at least 20 home runs and five seasons with a wRC+ above the league average of 100. I’d expect Schoop’s production to return to league average with about 20 home runs, regardless of what happens to him on defense.

The Tigers have already moved relief pitcher Joe Jiménez and are surely fielding calls on Gregory Soto, too. It remains to be seen whether Soto will be part of a trade package this offseason — the idea of a trade with the Blue Jays for Danny Jansen remains intriguing — but it’s hard to see Soto staying in Detroit much longer. He is under team control through 2025, both a reason why the Tigers have been hesitant to trade him and also a reason he has value to other teams.

If the Tigers are going to acquire bats, Soto is among their most valuable trade chips. Volatile as he can be, he has a tremendous sinker and the capability to dominate. Not hard to see a contender liking him for a seventh- or eighth-inning role. So if not this offseason, I think Soto is pitching elsewhere by the trade deadline.

If Soto goes — or perhaps even if he doesn’t — there will be a vacancy for Detroit’s closer role. Manager A.J. Hinch even entertained the idea that the job was open at the Winter Meetings. “I guess in some ways I’m saying yes (the job is open) because — I don’t know. I’m not fixated on that,” he said. The good news is the Tigers have a strong in-house candidate.

Lange had a 3.41 ERA last season and averaged 11.7 K/9. Even better: He misses bats at an elite rate. Only Edwin Díaz had a better whiff percentage than Lange’s 44.1 percent last season. Lange, too, could be a trade candidate. But he’s also got the intense demeanor and the powerful stuff that could make him a very good closer.

Joey Wentz becomes a member of the rotation

Here’s another one that is not hard to see. Wentz impressed quite a bit late last year, posting a 1.73 ERA over five starts in September. The lefty went to the Arizona Fall League, where he outmatched his minor-league competition. He allowed only two hits and no runs in his 12 innings in Arizona.

The Tigers’ Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen signings might make it hard for Wentz to crack the Opening Day rotation. But there are always injuries, so expect Wentz to get a chance early. And based on what we’ve seen, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he locks down a spot. Think of Wentz as a solid No. 4 starter.

Austin Meadows. (Raj Mehta / USA Today)

Austin Meadows will remind us why the Tigers traded for him

Here’s another player who almost certainly can’t have things go any worse. Meadows played only 36 games for the Tigers last year. His list of ailments included an inner-ear infection, vertigo, COVID-19, strains in both Achilles’ tendons, and finally mental health struggles that caused him to shut things down for the season.

Meadows, though, was terrific for the Rays in 2019 and an above-average hitter in 2021. Even in his short time with the Tigers, he had a .347 on-base percentage and was the toughest at-bat in their order. Assuming all is well with Meadows mentally and physically, a season closer to his 2021 performance — which included 27 home runs and a 115 OPS+ — seems feasible.

The Tigers are better than last year

If even a couple of the above predictions prove true, it should mean the Tigers have a better team than they did last season. Again, this isn’t an attempt to build hype. There are a lot of holes on this roster. Making a push for the playoffs would really be stunning. But it’s entirely possible the Tigers can play a more respectable brand of baseball. And if Hinch and Harris succeed in their mission to find small advantages on the margins, a season more like 2021’s 77-win campaign isn’t at all out of the question.

The Tigers still struggle offensively

Yeah, they still have issues. Even if players such as Schoop and Meadows rebound — even if Greene is showing the makings of a budding star — it’s hard to have faith in the bottom half of this lineup. Miguel Cabrera will still be getting at-bats. I’m shying away from predicting whether Spencer Torkelson can get things together. As it stands, we have no idea who will play third base for the Tigers, and the free-agent market for infielders is dwindling quickly. Catcher remains a concern, though Eric Haase can provide some offensive help.

All that said, the Tigers just don’t have a deep lineup. They are again counting on young players to carry a heavy load and veterans to rebound from their struggles. I think Detroit’s offense ranks in the bottom third of the league. If the Tigers are indeed an improved team, it will be because of strong pitching and finding ways to maximize what little offense they do produce.

The idea of Rodriguez as another trade candidate is a growing notion. Rodriguez can opt out of his five-year contract at the end of the 2023 season and, given what starting pitchers are making in free agency, he could cash in on a bigger payday with even a decent year. Last summer, when Rodriguez left the team and essentially went silent for a prolonged stretch, was a strange one but he returned and had a 3.81 ERA in his final nine starts.

Rodriguez will pitch at age 30 this coming season. He will make $14 million, with his Tigers salary set to increase to $18 million if he does not opt out. He also has a limited no-trade clause that could make him more difficult to deal. Regardless of what happens, Rodriguez is looking at an opportunity to get more years and more money if he pitches anything close to his 2019 form.

The Tigers are stuck with Javier Báez, for better or worse

Báez also has an opt-out, but it’s much harder to see him taking his. Báez — as was well-documented — had a rough time in his first season in Detroit. He hit .238 with 17 home runs. His wRC+ of 90 was the worst for a full season in his career. He also led MLB with 27 errors at shortstop. Báez, too, is a candidate to play better in 2023. But even if Báez is at his very best, it’s tough to see his market being strong.

His up-and-down play is simply part of his game. His chase rate is never going to decline significantly. Some teams were reluctant to give him a long-term deal last time he hit free agency, with concerns over how his game would change as he ventured into his 30s. Báez will turn 31 next offseason.

If he stays in Detroit, he’d be set to make $98 million over four more seasons. Even with the contracts other shortstops earned this winter, hard to see Báez getting a better deal than he already has.

(Top photo: Duane Burleson/Getty Images)